The Great American Comeback

Today is Jobs Friday, and instead of another horrible report we were greeted with the largest job gain every recorded. The estimate was for a loss of 7.5mm, and we gained close to 2.5mm jobs, meaning estimates were off by 10mm. Today I was on The TD Ameritrade Network to Discuss.

1. The probability that the worst is behind us in now close to 100

2. Hard to overstate the significance of this Jobs report

3. The probability of a “V” shaped recovery has also shot through the roof

4. Looks like markets have had this right

5. We are most likely in store for a multi year bull market

6. Markets should hit new all time highs this year

7. Recessions normally bottom between the peak of initial claims and the peak of continuing claims

8. The occurred sometime in April

9. While this may be the most severe recession, this will be the shortest

10. Already starting to see some signs of life

    • Hotel Occupancy up 8% MoM

    • TSA Checkpoint Data (7dma) up 123% MoM, 7% WoW

    • Steel production up 5.4% MoM

    • Auto Sales up 42.3% from April to May

11. The Government Programs are working

    1. Monthly Income largest gain ever

    2. Savings rate jumped to 30%

    3. There will be a ton demand on the other side

    4. Markets have largely recovered; creating a “wealth effect”

12. When you combine this with a recovering economy stocks are likely set up for a multi-year run