V for Victory/V-Shaped recovery

Today I was on the the TD Ameritrade Network discussing my thoughts on the economy and the markets recovery.

1.       V-shaped recovery firmly in-place

2.       CRAM – Confidence, Rail, Autos, Mortgages – All showing big “V”

3.       This will level off, and speed of recovery will slow, but we are so far ahead of even the rosiest of expectations it almost doesn’t matter

4.       The Small Business Optimism Index also shows the perfect V

5.       There will not be another shutdown of the economy

a.       There is no hard data that shows the shutdown worked

b.       Hospitals were never close to being overrun

c.       Some Bars & Restaurants in certain areas may close in pockets, but the worst is far behind us

6.       We are at the beginning of a multi-year bull market

7.       Stocks are ahead of earnings, but they usually are –

8.       Fed, Treasury, and Fiscal Stimulus will push stocks to new highs by end of 2020

a.       Rates are going are to or near zero

b.       The Fed has back stopped most of the S&P 500

c.       M2 has increased by 25% in the last quarter

9.       Like Tech (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Communications (XLC)